Starlink launch March 18th

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Another Starlink launch tomorrow, Saturday March 14th. Another 60 satellites going into orbit. SpaceX is getting closer to starting their satellite internet service to compete with Viasat and EchoStar HughesNet.

How many customers will Viasat and EchoStar HughesNet lose to SpaceX Starlink?

10% ?
30% ?
50% ?
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Jay

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Posted 3 months ago

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Voyager

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If it happens. That one that was supposed to happen last week was aborted. I suspect this is that launch rescheduled. StarLink is years away from being a business threat to anyone, but I do hope they get to that point. They have a long road ahead with lots of potholes in it.
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Jay

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Elon and Gwynne Shotwell just confirmed last week at Satellite 2020 conference that they expect to begin offering service in the northern USA states during the second half of 2020. All of the current launch orbits are design to create 24/7 coverage of the USA.

Here is a YouTube simulation that shows how they are doing USA coverage first.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k73AFybi7zk
(Edited)
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Voyager

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Well, a confirmation of an expectation is certainly something you can take to the bank! LOL.
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ExSatUser

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I will wait for that :).
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Jay

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On the day Starlink launches, they will have more usable capacity than Viasat has available today.

480 satellites X 20 Gbps = 9,600 Gbps. It is estimated that between 10% to 20% of the capacity is usable at any one time because the LEO satellites spends time over ocean and land that is not usable. So let's go with the lower end of the esimate at 10%. 960 Gbps of usable capacity.

Viasat today only has 400 Gbps of capacity, of which, they also do not reach 100% capacity consumed due to nighttime hours, low demand periods.


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Old Labs

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Sounds like a theory to me.
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Steve Frederick-VS1/Beam314, Champion

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So Jay keeps stating the total capacity of a huge array of satellites serving a small patch of the earth's surface at any given time. That is just like the cell companies advertising their service has the total amount of data capability of all the operating towers in their system, when in reality one can only get service from a very few towers in any particular place.

I am not saying that the system will provide internet, but that service in any one area will be limited to the capacity of the satellite passing over that location, not the entire galaxy of the satellites.Only time will tell how well the system will provide high speed internet to us.
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Jay

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Total capacity utilization for a LEO constellation was estimated by the Viasat CEO (Orlando Raymond James conference) at 10% to 20%. I am using those numbers in above and it still crushes Viasat both on cost per Gbps and useful capacity available to customers.

SpaceX's cost per Gbps launched into orbit is a fraction of Viasat's. 

Viasat is doing better than EchoStar HughesNet with their strategy. EchoStar Hughesnet new Jupiter 3 satellite is 40% more expensive per Gbps than Viasat's new gen 3 satellite.

But neither of them are remotely competitive with SpaceX Starlink on either cost, total useful capacity or any metric.
(Edited)
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Jay

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Wow, Viasat stock was down 35% at one point today. Closed down 25%.
The market was only down 5%. Maybe investors are realizing the threat from SpaceX.
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ExSatUser

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Lol
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Voyager

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Another booster bites the dust. I wonder how many they can lose and still meet their expected launch schedule?

https://youtu.be/rmrSx2OuO84
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Jay

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According to the Wiki SpaceX has six of the block 5 boosters in the barn right now.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_first-stage_boosters

They only fly the block 5 version now. The booster for the Crew Dragon mission in late May is a new booster that SpaceX can use for anything after that mission. 

It currently takes about 60 days to turn around a booster, so they need about 4 or 5 boosters to maintain their goal of 2 launches per month. The factory mostly produces Stage 2 boosters right now and occasionally a Stage 1 booster if they are getting low.